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Trade War
Fed Rates
12
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23
macro
1
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17
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6
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Economy
Economy
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Trade War
Fed Rates
Inflation
macro
GDP
Global Rates
Taxes
Treasuries
TSA
Housing
Fed rate hike by...?
September Meeting
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
October Meeting
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
$3.9M Vol.
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 4.25%
87%
Yes
87%
No
13%
↑ 4.5%
25%
Yes
25%
No
75%
↑ 4.75%
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
↓ 1.0%
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
↓ 3.25%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
↓ 2.0%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$1.9M Vol.
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.3%
93%
Yes
93%
No
7%
5.4%
56%
Yes
56%
No
44%
$727k Vol.
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.7%
24%
Yes
24%
No
76%
Below 4.6%
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
Below 4.5%
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
Below 4.4%
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
Below 4.3%
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
Below 4.1%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$330k Vol.
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$240k Vol.
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
5.05%
99%
Yes
99%
No
1%
5.10%
93%
Yes
93%
No
7%
$72k Vol.
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
Below 4.67%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
Below 4.56%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
Below 4.51%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
Below 4.76%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
Below 4.70%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
Below 4.64%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$68k Vol.
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.40%
91%
Yes
91%
No
9%
5.45%
76%
Yes
76%
No
24%
5.55%
64%
Yes
64%
No
36%
5.50%
64%
Yes
64%
No
36%
5.60%
56%
Yes
56%
No
44%
5.70%
52%
Yes
52%
No
48%
$65k Vol.
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
Below 5.00%
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
Below 5.24%
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
Below 5.21%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
Below 5.12%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
Below 5.09%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
Below 5.15%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$54k Vol.
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?
5.39%
98%
Yes
98%
No
2%
5.42%
63%
Yes
63%
No
37%
5.45%
48%
Yes
48%
No
52%
5.50%
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
5.55%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
5.60%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$48k Vol.
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.90%
97%
Yes
97%
No
3%
4.95%
94%
Yes
94%
No
6%
5.00%
72%
Yes
72%
No
28%
5.10%
52%
Yes
52%
No
48%
5.25%
46%
Yes
46%
No
54%
$32k Vol.
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.50%
38%
Yes
38%
No
62%
Below 4.45%
27%
Yes
27%
No
73%
Below 4.35%
25%
Yes
25%
No
75%
Below 4.40%
25%
Yes
25%
No
75%
Below 4.25%
18%
Yes
18%
No
82%
Below 4.30%
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
$30k Vol.
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
95%
chance
Yes
No
$23k Vol.
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 5.20%
44%
Yes
44%
No
56%
Below 5.10%
40%
Yes
40%
No
60%
Below 5.15%
37%
Yes
37%
No
63%
Below 5.05%
31%
Yes
31%
No
69%
Below 5.00%
19%
Yes
19%
No
81%
Below 4.95%
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
$23k Vol.
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
Below 4.46%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
Below 4.52%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
Below 4.49%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
Below 4.43%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
Below 4.40%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
Below 4.32%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$22k Vol.
What will be the next Fed rate change?
95%
Hike
Hike
Cut
$15k Vol.
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$6k Vol.
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