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Trade War
Fed Rates
12
Inflation
23
macro
1
GDP
17
Global Rates
Taxes
1
Treasuries
6
TSA
Housing
1
Economy
Economy
All
Trade War
Fed Rates
Inflation
macro
GDP
Global Rates
Taxes
Treasuries
TSA
Housing
Fed rate hike by...?
September Meeting
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
October Meeting
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
$3.9M Vol.
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Above 4.5%
18%
Yes
18%
No
82%
Above 5%
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
Above 6%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
Above 8%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
Above 10%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$1.5M Vol.
Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
5.00-5.49%
49%
Yes
49%
No
51%
5.50-5.99%
27%
Yes
27%
No
73%
4.50-4.99%
19%
Yes
19%
No
81%
6.00-6.49%
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
4.00-4.49%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
7.00%+
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$136k Vol.
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
3.5–3.9%
44%
Yes
44%
No
56%
4.0-4.4%
16%
Yes
16%
No
84%
3.0–3.4%
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
2.5–2.9%
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
4.5%+
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
1.5–1.9%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$121k Vol.
Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026
3.1%+
91%
Yes
91%
No
9%
2.8-3.0%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
1.0–1.2%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
2.5–2.7%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
1.6–1.8%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
2.2–2.4%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$117k Vol.
China Annual Inflation 2026
0.6 – 1.0%
33%
Yes
33%
No
67%
1.1 – 1.5%
23%
Yes
23%
No
77%
0.1 – 0.5%
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
-0.4 – 0.0%
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
1.6 – 2.0%
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
-0.9 – -0.5%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$100k Vol.
US economic state at the end of 2026?
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
68%
Yes
68%
No
32%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
33%
Yes
33%
No
67%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$96k Vol.
Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
2.0-2.4%
77%
Yes
77%
No
23%
≤1.9%
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
2.5-2.9%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
3.0-3.4%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
4.0%+
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
3.5-3.9%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$74k Vol.
Argentina Annual Inflation 2026
30.0-34.9%
58%
Yes
58%
No
42%
25-29.9%
41%
Yes
41%
No
59%
45%+
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
20-24.9%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
<20%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
40-44.9%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$73k Vol.
September Inflation US - Annual
3.6%
47%
Yes
47%
No
53%
3.7%
28%
Yes
28%
No
72%
3.5%
19%
Yes
19%
No
81%
3.8%
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
3.4%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
3.3%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$73k Vol.
Mexico Annual Inflation 2026
4.00% to 4.49%
35%
Yes
35%
No
65%
3.50% to 3.99%
34%
Yes
34%
No
66%
3.00% to 3.49%
15%
Yes
15%
No
85%
4.50% to 4.99%
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
2.50% to 2.99%
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
<2.50%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$72k Vol.
South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
4.7-5.0%
33%
Yes
33%
No
67%
>5.0%
32%
Yes
32%
No
68%
4.4-4.7%
30%
Yes
30%
No
70%
4.1-4.4%
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
3.5-3.8%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
3.2-3.5%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$66k Vol.
Core PCE YoY - August 2026
3.4%
33%
Yes
33%
No
67%
3.1%
28%
Yes
28%
No
72%
3.2%
24%
Yes
24%
No
76%
3.3%
18%
Yes
18%
No
82%
≤3.0%
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
3.5%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$51k Vol.
South Korea Annual Inflation 2026
3.0%+
30%
Yes
30%
No
70%
2.7% to 2.9%
29%
Yes
29%
No
71%
2.4% to 2.6%
28%
Yes
28%
No
72%
2.1% to 2.3%
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
1.8% to 2.0%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
<1.5%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$48k Vol.
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
3.0-3.4%
36%
Yes
36%
No
64%
2.5–2.9%
35%
Yes
35%
No
65%
3.5-3.9%
15%
Yes
15%
No
85%
2.0–2.4%
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
1.0–1.4%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
4.0%+
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$43k Vol.
September Inflation US - Monthly
0.6%
39%
Yes
39%
No
61%
0.5%
37%
Yes
37%
No
63%
0.7%
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
0.4%
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
≥0.8%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
0.3%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$32k Vol.
Monthly
Core CPI YoY - September 2026
2.4%
47%
Yes
47%
No
53%
2.5%
34%
Yes
34%
No
66%
2.3%
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
2.6%
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
≥2.9%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
2.7%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$26k Vol.
Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?
$7.000+
73%
Yes
73%
No
27%
$9.000+
29%
Yes
29%
No
71%
$8.000+
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
$10.000+
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
$23k Vol.
Core PCE MoM - August 2026
0.3%
70%
Yes
70%
No
30%
0.2%
31%
Yes
31%
No
69%
0.1%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
0.5%+
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
0.4%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
≤-0.1%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$19k Vol.
Core CPI MoM - September 2026
0.2%
48%
Yes
48%
No
52%
0.3%
35%
Yes
35%
No
65%
0.1%
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
0.4%
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
≤0.0%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
0.6%+
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$16k Vol.
PPI YoY - September 2026
5.9%+
41%
Yes
41%
No
59%
5.8%
20%
Yes
20%
No
80%
5.7%
20%
Yes
20%
No
80%
≤5.0%
12%
Yes
12%
No
88%
5.6%
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
5.4%
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
$14k Vol.
Price of Dozen Eggs in September?
$2.20 to $2.30
52%
Yes
52%
No
48%
$2.10 to $2.20
33%
Yes
33%
No
67%
$2.30 to $2.40
16%
Yes
16%
No
84%
$2.00 to $2.10
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
$1.90 to $2.00
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
$2.60 to $2.70
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$14k Vol.
Argentina Monthly Inflation - September
1.9 to 2.1%
60%
Yes
60%
No
40%
1.6 to 1.8%
41%
Yes
41%
No
59%
2.2 to 2.4%
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
1.3 to 1.5%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
1.0 to 1.2%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
≤0.9%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$12k Vol.
Monthly
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?
8%
chance
Yes
No
$11k Vol.
September Inflation UK - Annual
3.4-3.6%
59%
Yes
59%
No
41%
3.1-3.3%
30%
Yes
30%
No
70%
≤2.7%
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
2.8-3%
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
4.0%+
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
3.7-3.9%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$3k Vol.
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