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10
Military Strikes
21
Oil
Iran Regime
Ceasefire
Hormuz
10
Regional Spillover
US-Iran
11
Iran Strikes Israel
Reza Pahlavi
7
Lebanon
3
Nuclear
Israel x Iran
Kurds
Iran
Iran
All
Military Strikes
Oil
Iran Regime
Ceasefire
Hormuz
Regional Spillover
US-Iran
Iran Strikes Israel
Reza Pahlavi
Lebanon
Nuclear
Israel x Iran
Kurds
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
6%
chance
Yes
No
$1.1M Vol.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
14%
chance
Yes
No
$448k Vol.
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
September 30
73%
Yes
73%
No
27%
September 28
51%
Yes
51%
No
49%
September 29
40%
Yes
40%
No
60%
$154k Vol.
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?
0-5
87%
Yes
87%
No
13%
5-10
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
25-30
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
10-15
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
15-20
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
20-25
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$64k Vol.
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
<25
44%
Yes
44%
No
56%
25-29
44%
Yes
44%
No
56%
30-34
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
40+
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
35-39
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$52k Vol.
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
US
28%
Yes
28%
No
72%
Australia
20%
Yes
20%
No
80%
Italy
16%
Yes
16%
No
84%
UK
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
Greece
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
France
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
$50k Vol.
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?
10+
21%
Yes
21%
No
79%
20+
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
50+
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
40+
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
30+
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$40k Vol.
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?
20-24
37%
Yes
37%
No
63%
25-29
18%
Yes
18%
No
82%
<20
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
30-34
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
35-39
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
40+
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
$19k Vol.
Weekly
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 21?
20-24
69%
Yes
69%
No
31%
25-29
23%
Yes
23%
No
77%
<20
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
30-34
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
40+
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
35-39
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$14k Vol.
Weekly
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 28?
170-189
34%
Yes
34%
No
66%
190-209
28%
Yes
28%
No
72%
<170
27%
Yes
27%
No
73%
230+
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
210-229
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
$9k Vol.
Weekly
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 21?
<170
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
170-189
45%
Yes
45%
No
55%
230+
35%
Yes
35%
No
65%
190-209
30%
Yes
30%
No
70%
210-229
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
$3k Vol.
Weekly
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