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12
Military Strikes
20
Oil
Iran Regime
Ceasefire
Hormuz
11
Regional Spillover
US-Iran
11
Iran Strikes Israel
Reza Pahlavi
7
Lebanon
3
Nuclear
Israel x Iran
Kurds
Iran
Iran
All
Military Strikes
Oil
Iran Regime
Ceasefire
Hormuz
Regional Spillover
US-Iran
Iran Strikes Israel
Reza Pahlavi
Lebanon
Nuclear
Israel x Iran
Kurds
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
November 30
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
October 31
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
September 30
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$18.7M Vol.
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
March 31, 2027
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
December 31, 2026
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
October 31, 2026
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
September 30, 2026
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
$12.5M Vol.
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$7.8M Vol.
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$6.9M Vol.
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
42%
Yes
42%
No
58%
Kazem Gharibabadi
41%
Yes
41%
No
59%
Ishaq Dar
35%
Yes
35%
No
65%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
27%
Yes
27%
No
73%
Nick Stewart
24%
Yes
24%
No
76%
Rafael Grossi
22%
Yes
22%
No
78%
$1.1M Vol.
US charges Hormuz fees by...?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$984k Vol.
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$179k Vol.
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 2026
76%
Yes
76%
No
24%
October 31, 2026
56%
Yes
56%
No
44%
September 30, 2026
33%
Yes
33%
No
67%
$119k Vol.
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
1%
chance
Yes
No
$74k Vol.
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
USA
36%
Yes
36%
No
64%
No Meeting by December 31
24%
Yes
24%
No
76%
Qatar
22%
Yes
22%
No
78%
Switzerland
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
Pakistan
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
Austria
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
$50k Vol.
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
US
28%
Yes
28%
No
72%
Australia
20%
Yes
20%
No
80%
Italy
16%
Yes
16%
No
84%
UK
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
Greece
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
France
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
$50k Vol.
Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?
October 31
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
September 30
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$42k Vol.
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