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5
Iran
140
Oil
2
Ukraine
39
Ukraine Map
17
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1
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6
Middle East
31
Gaza
6
Israel
62
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4
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2
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1
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1
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18
Thailand-Cambodia
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Geopolitics
Geopolitics
All
Iran
Oil
Ukraine
Ukraine Map
Cuba
Venezuela
Middle East
Gaza
Israel
Syria
Yemen
Turkey
Sudan
China
Thailand-Cambodia
India-Pakistan
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
6%
chance
Yes
No
$3.4M Vol.
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
13%
chance
Yes
No
$3.3M Vol.
Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
December 31
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
September 30
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
October 31
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
$3.1M Vol.
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$2.4M Vol.
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
52%
chance
Yes
No
$1.7M Vol.
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
6%
chance
Yes
No
$1.4M Vol.
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
27%
chance
Yes
No
$492k Vol.
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
9%
chance
Yes
No
$455k Vol.
China x India military clash by...?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$331k Vol.
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
91%
chance
Yes
No
$278k Vol.
Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?
Dong Jun
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
Zhang Shengmin
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
Wang Huning
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
Wang Yi
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
Zhao Leji
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
Li Qiang
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$228k Vol.
US x China Military clash before 2027?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$213k Vol.
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?
24%
chance
Yes
No
$138k Vol.
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
chance
Yes
No
$111k Vol.
People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?
No Change
99%
Yes
99%
No
1%
Decrease
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Increase
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$55k Vol.
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?
1%
chance
Yes
No
$26k Vol.
September Inflation China - Annual
0.7% to 0.8%
44%
Yes
44%
No
56%
0.9% to 1.0%
43%
Yes
43%
No
57%
0.5% to 0.6%
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
1.1%+
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
≤0.4%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$24k Vol.
How long will Trump and Xi shake hands?
15s+
43%
Yes
43%
No
57%
10–15s
34%
Yes
34%
No
66%
6–10s
18%
Yes
18%
No
82%
2–6s
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
<2s
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
Photographed only
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$24k Vol.
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?
1%
chance
Yes
No
$11k Vol.
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$9k Vol.
Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$6k Vol.
Will Trump insult Xi by end of summit?
1%
chance
Yes
No
$3k Vol.
When will Xi leave the USA?
September 25
98%
Yes
98%
No
2%
Other
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
September 26
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
September 24 or earlier
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
September 28
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
September 29 or later
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$2k Vol.
U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
5–15%
29%
Yes
29%
No
71%
25–35%
22%
Yes
22%
No
78%
<5%
20%
Yes
20%
No
80%
15–25%
18%
Yes
18%
No
82%
35%+
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
$458 Vol.
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
46%
chance
Yes
No
$63 Vol.
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