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5
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140
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2
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39
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16
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1
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6
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29
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5
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60
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Geopolitics
Geopolitics
All
Iran
Oil
Ukraine
Ukraine Map
Cuba
Venezuela
Middle East
Gaza
Israel
Syria
Yemen
Turkey
Sudan
China
Thailand-Cambodia
India-Pakistan
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027
12%
Yes
12%
No
88%
December 31, 2026
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
September 30, 2026
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$26.6M Vol.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
26%
chance
Yes
No
$14.5M Vol.
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31
27%
Yes
27%
No
73%
October 31
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
$8.0M Vol.
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027
94%
Yes
94%
No
6%
US
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
Qatar / UAE
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Russia
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Switzerland
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
China
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$3.6M Vol.
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$3.3M Vol.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$2.8M Vol.
Ukraine election held by...?
1%
chance
Yes
No
$2.5M Vol.
Ukraine election called by...?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$1.8M Vol.
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China
65%
Yes
65%
No
35%
No meeting by December 31
23%
Yes
23%
No
77%
United States
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
Gulf country
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Turkey
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Russia
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$1.6M Vol.
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
2%
chance
Yes
No
$1.3M Vol.
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?
8%
chance
Yes
No
$966k Vol.
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$827k Vol.
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31
70%
Yes
70%
No
30%
November 30
56%
Yes
56%
No
44%
October 31
41%
Yes
41%
No
59%
October 15
26%
Yes
26%
No
74%
September 30
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$807k Vol.
U.S. nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
September 30, 2026
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$800k Vol.
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
December 31
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
September 30
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$662k Vol.
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$483k Vol.
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?
4%
chance
Yes
No
$462k Vol.
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$213k Vol.
Ukraine coup attempt by...?
6%
chance
Yes
No
$170k Vol.
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
6%
chance
Yes
No
$163k Vol.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
55%
chance
Yes
No
$159k Vol.
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
4%
chance
Yes
No
$156k Vol.
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$151k Vol.
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by...?
50%
chance
Yes
No
$149k Vol.
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$143k Vol.
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by...?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$139k Vol.
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$133k Vol.
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by...?
December 31
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
October 31
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
September 30
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$55k Vol.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?
44%
chance
Yes
No
$55k Vol.
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?
2%
chance
Yes
No
$54k Vol.
Russia military action against EU country by...?
December 31
20%
Yes
20%
No
80%
September 30
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$50k Vol.
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$27k Vol.
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