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5
Iran
140
Oil
2
Ukraine
39
Ukraine Map
17
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1
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6
Middle East
32
Gaza
7
Israel
63
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4
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Geopolitics
Geopolitics
All
Iran
Oil
Ukraine
Ukraine Map
Cuba
Venezuela
Middle East
Gaza
Israel
Syria
Yemen
Turkey
Sudan
China
Thailand-Cambodia
India-Pakistan
Netanyahu out by...?
49%
chance
Yes
No
$124.5M Vol.
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
September 30
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$8.5M Vol.
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4
78%
Yes
78%
No
22%
5
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
6
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
7
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
10
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
8
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$7.6M Vol.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$4.1M Vol.
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
19%
chance
Yes
No
$3.8M Vol.
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$3.5M Vol.
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
March 31
28%
Yes
28%
No
72%
December 31
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
October 31
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
September 30
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$1.4M Vol.
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$945k Vol.
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?
9%
chance
Yes
No
$763k Vol.
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
September 30
99%
Yes
99%
No
1%
December 31
99%
Yes
99%
No
1%
$457k Vol.
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$445k Vol.
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Yashar
62%
Yes
62%
No
38%
Likud
38%
Yes
38%
No
62%
Together
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Otzma Yehudit
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
The Democrats
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Shas
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$324k Vol.
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
8%
chance
Yes
No
$309k Vol.
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$240k Vol.
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$213k Vol.
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
6%
chance
Yes
No
$186k Vol.
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
6%
chance
Yes
No
$91k Vol.
Likud Party Primary Winner
Eli Cohen
95%
Yes
95%
No
5%
Person B
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Person C
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Person D
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Person E
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Person F
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$85k Vol.
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$71k Vol.
How many Israeli elections before government formed?
1
65%
Yes
65%
No
35%
2
26%
Yes
26%
No
74%
3
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
4
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
0
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
5+
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$44k Vol.
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
35%
chance
Yes
No
$39k Vol.
Bank of Israel Decision in October?
No Change
78%
Yes
78%
No
22%
Decrease
21%
Yes
21%
No
79%
Increase
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$31k Vol.
Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by...?
October 31
18%
Yes
18%
No
82%
September 30
15%
Yes
15%
No
85%
$16k Vol.
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
96%
chance
Yes
No
$10k Vol.
Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?
<20
35%
Yes
35%
No
65%
22-23
26%
Yes
26%
No
74%
24-25
18%
Yes
18%
No
82%
26-27
16%
Yes
16%
No
84%
30+
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
20-21
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
$10k Vol.
Israel Election: RZP-Zehut # of seats?
6-7
52%
Yes
52%
No
48%
4-5
26%
Yes
26%
No
74%
<4
12%
Yes
12%
No
88%
8-9
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
10+
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$8k Vol.
Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?
4
32%
Yes
32%
No
68%
5
31%
Yes
31%
No
69%
6
25%
Yes
25%
No
75%
<4
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
7
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
8+
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$8k Vol.
Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$8k Vol.
Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?
7-8
67%
Yes
67%
No
33%
9-10
19%
Yes
19%
No
81%
<7
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
11+
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
$7k Vol.
Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?
<4
62%
Yes
62%
No
38%
4-6
33%
Yes
33%
No
67%
7-9
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
10+
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$6k Vol.
Israel Election: Shas # of seats?
8-9
39%
Yes
39%
No
61%
6-7
24%
Yes
24%
No
76%
10-11
21%
Yes
21%
No
79%
12+
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
<6
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
$5k Vol.
Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?
8-9
30%
Yes
30%
No
70%
6-7
25%
Yes
25%
No
75%
10+
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
4-5
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
<4
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$5k Vol.
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